Towards a framework for combining stochastic and deterministic descriptions of nonstationary financial time series

We present in this paper ideas to tackle the problem of analysing and forecasting nonstationary time series within the financial domain. Accepting the stochastic nature of the underlying data generator we assume that the evolution of the generator's parameters is restricted on a deterministic manifold. Therefore we propose methods for determining the characteristics of the time-localised distribution. Starting with the assumption of a static normal distribution we refine this hypothesis according to the empirical results obtained with the methods anc conclude with the indication of a dynamic non-Gaussian behaviour with varying dependency for the time series under consideration.

Potential risk factors for medication non-adherence in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)

Aims - To investigate the effect of a range of demographic and psychosocial variables on medication adherence in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients managed in a secondary care setting. Methods - A total of 173 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COPD, recruited from an outpatient clinic in Northern Ireland, participated in the study. Data collection was carried out via face-to-face interviews and through review of patients’ medical charts. Social and demographic variables, co-morbidity, self-reported drug adherence (Morisky scale), Hospital Anxiety and Depression (HAD) scale, COPD knowledge, Health Belief Model (HBM) and self-efficacy scales were determined for each patient. Results - Participants were aged 67 ± 9.7 (mean ± SD) years, 56 % female and took a mean (SD) of 8.2 ± 3.4 drugs. Low adherence with medications was present in 29.5 % of the patients. Demographic variables (gender, age, marital status, living arrangements and occupation) were not associated with adherence. A range of clinical and psychosocial variables, on the other hand, were found to be associated with medication adherence, i.e. beliefs regarding medication effectiveness, severity of COPD, smoking status, presence of co-morbid illness, depressed mood, self-efficacy, perceived susceptibility and perceived barriers within the HBM (p < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that perceived ineffectiveness of medication, presence of co-morbid illness, depressed mood and perceived barriers were independently associated with medication non-adherence in the study (P < 0.05). Conclusions - Adherence in COPD patients is influenced more by patients’ perception of their health and medication effectiveness, the presence of depressed mood and co-morbid illness than by demographic factors or disease severity.

What risk factors are associated with Alzheimer's disease?

A large number of risk factors have been associated with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). This article discusses the validity of the major risk factors that have been identified including age, genetics, exposure to aluminium, head injury, malnutrition and diet, mitochondrial dysfunction, vascular disease, immune system dysfunction, and infection. Rare forms of early-onset familial AD (FAD) are strongly linked to the presence of specific gene mutations, viz. mutations in amyloid precursor protein (APP) and presenilin (PSEN1/2) genes. By contrast, late-onset sporadic AD (SAD) is a multifactorial disorder in which age-related changes, genetic risk factors, such as allelic variation in apolipoprotein E (Apo E) gene, vascular disease, head injury and risk factors associated with diet, the immune system, mitochondrial function, and infection may all be involved. Life-style changes that may reduce the effect of these risk factors and therefore, the risk of AD are discussed.

A Franco-British comparison of patterns of working hours in large-scale grocery retailing, with specific reference to part-time work

In this thesis patterns of working hours in large-scale grocery retailing in Britain and France are compared. The research is carried out using cross-national comparative methodology, and the analysis is based on information derived from secondary sources and empirical research in large-scale grocery retailing involving employers and trade unions at industry level and case studies at outlet level. The thesis begins by comparing national patterns of working hours in Britain and France over the post-war period. Subsequently, a detailed comparison of working hours in large-scale grocery retailing in Britain and France is carried out through the analysis of secondary sources and empirical data. Emphasis is placed on analyzing part-time working hours. They are contrasted and compared at national level and explained in terms of supply and demand factors. The relationships between the structuring of, and satisfaction with, working hours and factors determining women's integration in the workforce in Britain and France are investigated. Part-time hours are then compared and contrasted in large-scale grocery retailing in the context of the analysis of working hours. The relationship between the structuring of working hours and satisfaction with them is examined in both countries through research with women part-timers in case study outlets. The cross-national comparative methodology is used to examine whether dissimilar national contexts in Britain and France have led to different patterns of working hours in large-scale grocery retailing. The principal conclusion is that significant differences are found in the length, organization and flexibility of working hours and that these differences can be attributed to dissimilar socio-economic, political, and cultural contexts in the two countries.

Genetic risk factors and age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make lifestyle choices that may reduce the risk of disease. Collaboration between geneticists, ophthalmologists, and optometrists suggests that genetic risk factors play a more significant role in AMD than previously thought. The most important genes are associated with immune system modulation and the complement system, e.g., complement factor H (CFH), factor B (CFB), factor C3, and serpin peptidase inhibitor (SERPING1). Genes associated with membrane transport, e.g., ATP-binding cassette protein (ABCR) and voltage-dependent calcium channel gamma 3 (CACNG3), the vascular system, e.g., fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF2), fibulin-5, lysyl oxidase-like gene (LOXL1) and selectin-P (SELP), and with lipid metabolism, e.g., apolipoprotein E (APOE) and hepatic lipase (LIPC) have also been implicated. In addition, several other genes exhibit some statistical association with AMD, e.g., age-related maculopathy susceptibility protein 2 (ARMS2) and DNA excision repair protein gene (ERCC6) but more research is needed to establish their significance. Modifiable risk factors for AMD should be discussed with patients whose lifestyle and/or family history place them in an increased risk category. Furthermore, calculation of AMD risk using current models should be recommended as a tool for patient education. It is likely that AMD management in future will be increasingly influenced by assessment of genetic risk as such screening methods become more widely available. © 2013 Spanish General Council of Optometry.

Conjunctival UV autofluorescence - prevalence and risk factors

Purpose: Autofluorescence of ultraviolet (UV) light has been shown to occur in localised areas of the bulbar conjunctiva, which map to active cellular changes due to UV and environmental exposure. This study examined the presence of conjunctival UV autofluorescence in eye care practitioners (ECPs) across Europe and the Middle East and its associated risk factors. Method: Images were captured of 307 ECPs right eyes in the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Kuwait, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom using a Nikon D100 camera and dual flash units through UV filters. UV autofluorescence was outlined using ImageJ software and the nasal and temporal area quantified. Subjects were required to complete a questionnaire on their demographics and lifestyle including general exposure to UV and refractive correction. Results: Average age of the subjects was 38.5±12.2 years (range 19-68) and 39.7% were male. Sixty-two percent of eyes had some conjunctival damage as indicated by UV autofluorescence. The average area of damage was higher (p=0.005) nasally (2.95±4.52mm2) than temporally (2.19±4.17mm2). The area of UV damage was not related to age (r=0.03, p=0.674), gender (p=0.194), self-reported sun exposure lifestyle (p>0.05), geographical location (p=0174), sunglasses use (p>0.05) or UV-blocking contact lens use (p>0.05), although it was higher in those wearing contact lenses with minimal UV-blocking and no spectacles (p=0.015). The area of UV damage was also less nasally in those who wore contact lenses and spectacles compared to those with no refractive correction use (p=0.011 nasal; p=0.958 temporal). Conclusion: UV conjunctival damage is common even in Europe, Kuwait and UAE, and among ECPs. The area of damage appears to be linked with the use of refractive correction, with greater damage nasally than temporally which may be explained by the peripheral light focusing effect.

Risk factors for Alzheimer's disease

A large number of possible risk factors have been associated with Alzheimer'sdisease (AD).This chapter discusses the validity of the major risk factors that have been identifiedincluding age, genetics, exposure to aluminum, head injury, malnutrition and diet,mitochondrial dysfunction, vascular disease, immune system dysfunction, and infectionand proposes a hypothesis to explain how these various risk factors may cause ADpathology.Rare forms of early-onset familial AD (FAD) are strongly linked to the presence ofspecific gene mutations, viz. mutations in amyloid precursor protein (APP) andpresenilin (PSEN1/2) genes. By contrast, late-onset sporadic AD (SAD) is amultifactorial disorder in which age-related changes, genetic risk factors, such as allelicvariation in apolipoprotein E (Apo E) gene, vascular disease, head injury and risk factorsassociated with diet, immune system, mitochondrial function, and infection may all beinvolved.These risk factors interact to increase the rate of normal aging (=allostatic load')which over a lifetime results in degeneration of neurons and blood vessels and as aconsequence, the formation of abnormally aggregated =reactive' proteins such as ß-amyloid (Aß) and tau leading to the development of senile plaques (SP) andneurofibrillary tangles (NFT) respectively. Life-style changes that may reduce theallostatic load and therefore, the risk of dementia are discussed.

Risk factors for childhood myopia:findings from the NICER study

PURPOSE. We explored risk factors for myopia in 12- to 13-year-old children in Northern Ireland (NI). METHODS. Stratified random sampling was performed to obtain representation of schools and children. Cycloplegia was achieved using cyclopentolate hydrochloride 1%. Distance autorefraction was measured using the Shin-Nippon SRW-5000 device. Height and weight were measured. Parents and children completed a questionnaire, including questions on parental history of myopia, sociodemographic factors, childhood levels of near vision, and physical activity to identify potential risk factors for myopia. Myopia was defined as spherical equivalent ≤0.50 diopters (D) in either eye. RESULTS. Data from 661 white children aged 12-to 13-years showed that regular physical activity was associated with a lower estimated prevalence of myopia compared to sedentary lifestyles (odds ratio [OR] = 0.46 adjusted for age, sex, deprivation score, family size, school type, urbanicity; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.23–0.90; P for trend = 0.027). The odds of myopia were more than 2.5 times higher among children attending academically-selective schools (adjusted OR = 2.66; 95% CI, 1.48–4.78) compared to nonacademically-selective schools. There was no evidence of an effect of urban versus nonurban environment on the odds of myopia. Compared to children with no myopic parents, children with one or both parents being myopic were 2.91 times (95% CI, 1.54–5.52) and 7.79 times (95% CI, 2.93– 20.67) more likely to have myopia, respectively. CONCLUSIONS. In NI children, parental history of myopia and type of schooling are important determinants of myopia. The association between myopia and an environmental factor, such as physical activity levels, may provide insight into preventive strategies.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Retinal vascular function and cardiovascular risk factors

The current platform of conventional cardiovascular risk assessments tends to forsake the importance of endothelial function - a key biological mechanism by which cardiovascular risk factors exert their propensity for adverse vascular events. Moreover, the presence and severity of endothelial dysfunction in ‘low-risk’ individuals suggests considerable variability in pre-clinical risk that could potentially be detected well before the onset of disease. The aim of the present thesis was to investigate the presence and impact of retinal vascular dysfunction, as a barometer of endothelial function, in otherwise healthy individuals with one or more cardiovascular risk factors, but low to moderate cardiovascular risk. Systemic circulatory influences on retinal vascular function were also evaluated. The principle sections and findings of this work are: 1. Ageing effect on retinal vascular function • In low-risk individuals, there are age differences in retinal vascular function throughout the entire functional response curve for arteries and veins. Gender differences mainly affect the dilatory phase and are only present in young individuals. 2. Retinal vascular function in healthy individuals with a family history of cardiovascular disease • In low-risk individuals with a family history of cardiovascular disease, impairments in microvascular function at the retinal level correlate with established plasma markers for cardiovascular risk. 3. Ethnic differences in retinal vascular function • When compared to age-matched White Europeans, in low-risk middle-aged South Asians, there are impairments in retinal vascular function that correlate with established cardiovascular risk indicators. 4. Systemic circulatory influences on retinalµvascular function • Systemic antioxidant capacity (redox index) and plasma markers for cardiovascular risk (lipids) influence retinal microvascular function at both arterial and venous levels. 5. Retinal vascular function in individuals with obstructive sleep apnoea: a preliminarystudy • Patients with moderate to severe sleep apnoea exhibit attenuated retinal vascular function.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Overview of risk factors for age-related macular degeneration (AMD)

Age related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in individuals older than 65 years of age. It is a multifactorial disorder and identification of risk factors enables individuals to make life style choices that may reduce the risk of disease. This review discusses the role of genetics, sunlight, diet, cardiovascular factors, smoking, and alcohol as possible risk factors for AMD. Genetics plays a more significant role in AMD than previously thought, especially in younger patients, histocompatibility locus antigen (HLA) and complement system genes being the most significant. Whether the risk of AMD is increased by exposure to sunlight, cardiovascular risk factors, and diet is more controversial. Smoking is the risk factor most consistently associated with AMD. Current smokers are exposed to a two to three times higher risk of AMD than non-smokers and the risk increases with intensity of smoking. Moderate alcohol consumption is unlikely to increase the risk of AMD. Optometrists as front-line informers and educators of ocular health play a significant role in increasing public awareness of the risks of AMD. Cessation of smoking, the use of eye protection in high light conditions, dietary changes, and regular use of dietary supplements should all be considered to reduce the lifetime risk of AMD.

Prevalence and risk factors for reduced sound tolerance (hyperacusis) in children

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of reduced sound tolerance (hyperacusis) in a UK population of 11-year-old children and examine the association of early life and auditory risk factors with report of hyperacusis. DESIGN: A prospective UK population-based study. STUDY SAMPLE: A total of 7097 eleven-year-old children within the Avon longitudinal study of parents and children (ALSPAC) were asked about sound tolerance; hearing and middle-ear function was measured using audiometry, otoacoustic emissions, and tympanometry. Information on neonatal risk factors and socioeconomic factors were obtained through parental questionnaires. RESULTS: 3.7% (95% CI 3.25, 4.14) children reported hyperacusis. Hyperacusis report was less likely in females (adj OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.49, 0.85), and was more likely with higher maternal education level (adj OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.08, 2.72) and with readmission to hospital in first four weeks (adj OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.20, 3.25). Report of hyperacusis was associated with larger amplitude otoacoustic emissions but with no other auditory factors. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of hyperacusis in the population of 11-year-old UK children is estimated to be 3.7%. It is more common in boys.

Early hearing loss and language abilities in children with Down syndrome

BACKGROUND: Although many children with Down syndrome experience hearing loss, there has been little research to investigate its impact on speech and language development. Studies that have investigated the association give inconsistent results. These have often been based on samples where children with the most severe hearing impairments have been excluded and so results do not generalize to the wider population with Down syndrome. Also, measuring children's hearing at the time of a language assessment does not take into account the fluctuating nature of hearing loss in children with Down syndrome or possible effects of losses in their early years. AIMS: To investigate the impact of early hearing loss on language outcomes for children with Down syndrome. METHODS & PROCEDURES: Retrospective audiology clinic records and parent report for 41 children were used to categorize them as either having had hearing difficulties from 2 to 4 years or more normal hearing. Differences between the groups on measures of language expression and comprehension, receptive vocabulary, a narrative task and speech accuracy were investigated. OUTCOMES & RESULTS: After accounting for the contributions of chronological age and nonverbal mental age to children's scores, there were significant differences between the groups on all measures. CONCLUSIONS & IMPLICATIONS: Early hearing loss has a significant impact on the speech and language development of children with Down syndrome. Results suggest that speech and language therapy should be provided when children are found to have ongoing hearing difficulties and that joint audiology and speech and language therapy clinics could be considered for preschool children.